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PORTSIDE  September 2012, Week 4

PORTSIDE September 2012, Week 4

Subject:

Obama Against the World

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Mon, 24 Sep 2012 21:15:35 -0400

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Obama Against the World 
Forget Mitt Romney, Can the President Make It to
November 7th? 

By Tom Engelhardt

TomDispatch, Sept 23, 2012

http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175596/

Since this is my version of an election piece, I plan
to get the usual stuff out of the way fast.

So yes, the smartest political odds-givers around
believe President Obama has a distinct edge over Mitt
Romney coming out of the conventions, the Senate is
trending Democratic, and who knows about the House.  In
fact, it almost seems as if the Republicans put forward
the only man in America incapable of defeating an
economically wounded and deeply vulnerable president
(other than, of course, the roster of candidates he ran
against for the nomination).

In every way that they can control, the Obama people
have simply been smarter.  Take those conventions: in
each of them, the presidential candidate was introduced
by a well-known figure who went on stage and ad-libbed.
 One was an 82-year-old guy talking to an empty chair
(and I still thought he was the best thing the
Republicans had to offer, including his shout-out about
withdrawing all our troops from Afghanistan) and the
other was... well, Bill Clinton.

It wasn't even a contest.  As for the upcoming debates,
if you think Romney can outduel Obama without wandering
in among the thorns, I have a Nigerian prince I'd like
to introduce you to.  In other words, it should really
all be over except for the usual shouting and the
gazillions of dollars of attack ads that will turn
swing-state TV screens into a mind-numbing blur of
lies. Even there, however, some Super PAC and
dark-money types may evidently be starting to consider
shifting funds from beating up on Obama to beating up
on Democratic senatorial candidates.  It's a sign that
the moneybags of the Republican right fear the Romney
campaign is a rerun of McCain World and the candidate
is a Bain Capital version of John Kerry wind-surfing. 
After all, Romney seems almost incapable of opening his
mouth without letting out a howler, his staff is in a
state of civil war, and Republican candidates elsewhere
are leaping from the ditched bandwagon, as are even
conservative pundits.

By now, Obama and his savvy campaign staff should
really be home free, having run political circles
around their Republican opponent as he was running
circles around himself.  There's only one problem: the
world.  These days it's threatening to be a bizarrely
uncooperative place for a president who wants to rest
on his Osama-killing foreign-policy laurels.

An Administration of Managers Face the Tsunami

So send Mitt to the Cayman Islands, stick Paul Ryan in
a Swiss bank account, and focus your attention instead
on Obama versus the world.  For the next 43 days,
that's the real contest.  It could prove to be the
greatest show on Earth, filled as it is with a stellar
cast of Islamist extremists, Taliban militants, Afghan
allies intent on blowing away their mentors, endangered
American diplomats, an Israeli prime minister on the
red-line express, sober central European bankers, and a
perturbed Chinese leadership, among so many others.

In such a potentially tumultuous situation, the
president and his people are committed to a perilous
high-wire act without a net.  It involves bringing to
bear all the power and savvy left to the last
superpower on Earth to prevent some part of the world
from spinning embarrassingly out of control, lest the
president's opponent be handed a delectable "October
surprise."

Keep in mind that, despite the president's reputation
as a visionary speaker, in global terms his has
distinctly been an administration of managers.  The
visionaries came earlier.  They were the first-term
Bushites, including George W., Dick, and Donald, each
in his own way globally bonkers, and all of them and
their associates almost blissfully wrong about the
nature of power in our world.  (They mistook the
destructive power of the U.S. military for global power
itself.)  As a consequence, they blithely steered the
ship of state directly into a field of giant icebergs.

Think of that wrecking crew, in retrospect, as the
three stooges of geopolitical dreaming.  The invasion
and occupation of Iraq, in particular -- as well as the
hubris that went with the very idea of a "global war on
terror" -- were acts of take-your-breath-away folly
that help explain why the Bush administration was MIA
at the recent Republican convention (as was, of course,
the Iraq War).  In the process, they drove a stake
directly through the energy heartlands of the planet,
leaving autocratic allies there gasping for breath and
wondering what was next.  Since 2009, the managers of
the Obama administration have been doing what managers
do best: fiddling with the order of the deck chairs on
our particular Titanic. This might be thought of as
managing the Bush legacy.

The problem was that in much of the world an older
order, linked to the Cold War scheme of things, was
finally coming unglued.  A combination of the Bush
invasions of the Eurasian mainland and the way the U.S.
financial sector stormed the planet with a vast ponzi
scheme of bogus financial derivatives did much to
promote the process, especially in what
neoconservatives liked to call "the arc of instability"
(before they offered a striking demonstration of just
what instability was really all about). In a sense,
what they dubbed their "democracy agenda" -- though it
had little enough to do with democracy -- played a
distinct role in unifying much of the Arab world in
opposition to its Washington-backed one-percenters.  In
this way, the Arab Spring was launched against Ben
Ali-ism, and Mubarak-ism, against, that is, an American
system of well-armed regional autocrats.  (The
unraveling of Syria is just a reminder that what we are
watching is the disintegration of the full Cold War
set-up in the Middle East, including the less
significant Soviet part of it.)

Back in 2004, Egyptian diplomat Amr Moussa warned the
Bush administration that its invasion of Iraq had
opened "the gates of hell."  Of course, Washington paid
him no heed.  He was neither an autocrat nor a soldier,
but the secretary-general of the meaningless Arab
League, so what were his credentials to explain reality
to them?  As it happened, he couldn't have been more on
the mark and they more in the dark.  Unfortunately, it
took some time, two minority insurgencies, much chaos,
millions driven into exile, a bitter sectarian civil
war (now being repeated in Syria), and morgues filled
with dead bodies before the Arab Spring would be
launched.  Though that movement was named for a season
of renewal, its name was apt in another sense entirely:
a whole system that had long held in place a key region
of the planet was being sprung loose.

From Tunisia and Egypt to Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and
Syria, vast hordes of people would take to the streets,
nonviolently at first, to protest the corruption and
depredations of the 1% in their countries and, often,
the foreign powers behind them.  As autocrats began to
fall, a region-wide system in all its complexity,
corruption, and brutality began to shudder and come
apart at the seams.

Today, that system is, politely put, in transition, but
possibly simply in a state of collapse.  What will
replace it remains unknown and probably unknowable.  In
the meantime, into the emptied space have flowed all
sorts of raw emotions, bitterness, repressed memories,
hopes, and despair, much of it stored up for years if
not decades, including feelings that are extreme
indeed, and some that are simply murderous or quite
mad.  A way of life, a system in the Greater Middle
East, is clearly over. Surprise is the order of the
day, including wild demonstrations and killings over a
bizarre "trailer" for a non-existent film that barely
made it out of Southern California.

The truth is, from Iran to Iraq to Afghanistan to
Pakistan to Libya to Yemen, despite almost four years
of Obama's ministrations and management, war and
diplomacy, the Bush legacy is still threatening to blow
the region sky-high.  It could easily happen any time
in the 43 days before November 6th.  Which is why, from
Sudan to Libya, the Obama administration is playing
little Dutch boy, trying to plug every hole it can in
the Middle Eastern dike and praying that any coming
tsunami won't hit before the election.

A World at the Boiling Point

The question of the political season, then, has nothing
to do with Mitt.  It's this: Can the Greater Middle
East be managed effectively enough for any potentially
embarrassing thing to be swept under some rug until
November 7th?  And that's just one region on a planet
aboil.

Similar questions could be asked of Israeli policy on
Iran where Prime Minister Netanyahu has been, quite
literally, on the warpath and in the Obama
administration's face.  He has been pushing for a green
light for Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities
or guaranteed red lines that would lead to such
strikes.  To an outside observer, it might almost seem
that "Bibi" is on TV in the U.S. often enough these
days to be running for office.  From late night
presidential phone calls to a stream of messages to Tel
Aviv, some offering promises, others warnings, the
Obama administration has been putting enormous energy
into ensuring that no Israeli strike on Iran will take
place before election day (and on this they are likely
to succeed). But keep in mind that, to placate Israel,
the U.S. has built up its forces in the Persian Gulf
region to such an extent that any misstep anywhere
could result in a blow-up that neither Washington nor
Tehran wants.

When it comes to the disintegrating American position
in Afghanistan, almost 11 years after victory was
declared and the Bush administration decided to occupy
the country rather than go home, the news is grim.  The
whole mission on which the withdrawal of U.S. combat
troops is ostensibly based -- to train the Afghans to
stand up and fight for their country -- has essentially
been put on hold.  That's hardly surprising, since
Washington's Afghan allies are now regularly standing
up and, with the weapons and training U.S. mentors have
given them, blowing those mentors away.

Meanwhile, the actual enemy, the Taliban, supposedly
surged into near nonexistence in its southern homeland,
has just launched the most devastating attack on a
military base of the war, resulting in at least $200
million in allied loses. (It's their first attack that
might even faintly be compared to those the Vietnamese
launched against American bases in the 1960s.)  The
question once again is: Can Washington hang on in
Afghanistan until November 7th, even if it has to put
every Afghan training mission and joint operation on
hold and confine American troops to their bases?  The
great advantage the Obama administration holds in this
regard is that the American public has generally been
paying next to no attention to the Afghan War.  This,
nonetheless, is a situation in which an American
mission has a possibility of imploding (and unexpected
voices are finally being raised on the issue of early
withdrawal).  And we haven't even mentioned
Afghanistan's unsettled and unsettling nuclear neighbor
Pakistan.

Keep in mind that the increasingly disturbed regional
system we're discussing just happens to be located in
the energy heartlands of the planet and, in case you
hadn't noticed, prices at the pump have been rising
lately.  The Saudis are, however, now promising to put
extra oil into the global system, which just might
providentially help the Obama administration by
lowering gas prices before November.

Lest you think that Obama's October surprise fears lie
mainly in the Middle East, however, remember that a
world system is shuddering, too. There's the tottering
Eurozone, in recession and threatening to shatter with
unknown global financial consequences; and there's the
Chinese economy, that motor for the planet this last
decade, which seems to be slipping into recession (just
as the powerhouse Indian and Brazilian economies do the
same), amid growing signs of unrest and ugly
nationalist upheavals.  And don't even bother to bring
up climate change, the state of the planet, or the fact
that extreme droughts in the U.S. and elsewhere this
year are driving food prices up worldwide in a way that
guarantees future popular unrest on a large scale.  Any
of the above could burst into prominence in the next 43
days, surprising the world and putting President Obama
on the hot seat.  And keep in mind that we're only
talking about -- to paraphrase former Secretary of
Defense Donald Rumsfeld -- the known knowns, and known
unknowns.  No one is even thinking about the unknown
unknowns.

The liberal hit on Obama has been that the man won't
fight for what he believes in.  The next 43 days will
put the lie to that.  He's ready to fight fiercely for
his job by doing his damnedest to tamp down any
possible embarrassments, any potential October
surprises -- and he's enlisted the U.S. government
lock, stock, and State Department in that campaign. So
if you want a little horse-race entertainment for the
next six weeks, skip the Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia
polls, don't worry about the results of the coming
debates, or the court tests on restrictive new voting
laws.  After all, there's going to be no better show in
town than the acrobatic contortions of the Obama crew
as they work to keep global disaster off the menu until
November 7th.

It should be a lesson in what a declining superpower
can (or can't) still do: a shining tale of great power
management and luck or a sobering parable of what is no
longer within the grasp of such a power on this planet
of ours.

In the meantime, it's Obama against the world and the
horse-race question is: Will he make it to November 7th
and a second term?  Think of that as Obama's problem.

But there's another far less entertaining problem few
are thinking about right now. Consider it our problem. 
The Obama people are understandably focused on the
election.  Being of a managerial frame of mind, their
thoughts don't tend to run to the long-term anyhow. I
doubt they have, at this point, put a second's
consideration into what's likely to happen, if they
manage to keep everything under wraps, 44 days from now
-- and beyond.  It's not as if war with Iran, disaster
in Afghanistan, chaos in the Middle East, a staggering
Eurozone, a stumbling Chinese economy (in the midst of
seaborne saber rattling), rising oil and food prices,
climate change, and so much else won't be as
threatening then.  None of these are problems, however
managed, that are going away anytime soon or are likely
in the long run to prove particularly manageable from
Washington.

The question for the rest of us is: What the hell
happens next?   It's one you better start thinking
about because the Obama people, much as they want to
rule the roost for four more years, don't have a clue.

Tom Engelhardt, co-founder of the American Empire
Project and author of The United States of Fear as well
as The End of Victory Culture, runs the Nation
Institute's TomDispatch.com. His latest book,
co-authored with Nick Turse, is Terminator Planet: The
First History of Drone Warfare, 2001-2050. To listen to
Timothy MacBain's latest Tomcast audio interview in
which Engelhardt discusses an "October surprise" world
and the presidential election, click here or download
it to your iPod here.

Copyright 2012 Tom Engelhardt

(c) 2012 TomDispatch. All rights reserved. 

___________________________________________

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