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PORTSIDE  March 2011, Week 5

PORTSIDE March 2011, Week 5

Subject:

Epic Recession - How Did It Happen, How Bad Will It Get?

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Date:

Thu, 31 Mar 2011 10:25:30 -0400

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Book Review

Epic Recession - How Did It Happen, How Bad Will It
Get?

By Carl Finamore
t r u t h o u t | Op-Ed
March 26, 2011

http://www.truth-out.org/book-review-epic-recession-how-did-it-happen-how-bad-will-it-get62698

In the not-too-distant past, bankers, financiers, and
investors could do no wrong. They were the wizards of
Wall Street, ushering in a new era of economic
expansion. But by 2006, it became very clear that their
magic was just an illusion. The reality? Millions of
homeowners were defaulting on their mortgages, millions
of pensioners were watching their 401k's evaporate, and
millions of workers were losing their jobs.

Investors and bankers didn't fare nearly as badly. They
just shut down their old hustles, moved on down the
road, and reopened for business as if nothing had
happened.

Throughout this period, billionaire Warren Buffet's
advice to investors was exercised in full force - " The
first rule is to not lose money. The second rule is to
not forget rule number one." - and backed up by the US
Treasury.

In fact, big business has pretty much made up its own
rules during the last three decades: taxes for
corporations and the wealthiest were continually
lowered and regulatory obstacles to domestic and
offshore investments were eliminated. At the same time,
wages for the majority of workers have remained
stagnant since 1973.

Not surprisingly, the distribution of wealth has
shifted dramatically over those thirty years. Forbes
Magazine lists the 400 wealthiest Americans with a
total net worth of $1.27 trillion. Their poorer
cousins, the top one percent, control 40 percent of our
wealth, excluding only housing.

On the other hand, average consumers are tightening
their purse strings as their resources are squeezed
more and more and they continue to lose ground - as
they have over last thirty years.

Extensions of credit to households concealed this
decline and kept the economy going until debt burdens
finally led to the current wave of defaults, especially
in the housing market, where speculators drove prices
to unprecedented levels.

The crisis is the fundamental result of too much money
in the hands of too few people, according to Jack
Rasmus, a former elected union official turned college
professor and writer, whose latest book, Epic
Recession: Prelude to Global Depression, has just been
released by Pluto Press.

"A massive amount of liquidity in the hands" of
"wealthy individuals, their various investing
institutions like hedge funds, private equity firms,
[and] private banks" over the last three decades has
created a "global money parade . . . that sloshes
around the global economy in pursuit of the greatest
short-term returns, which in recent years have become
increasingly speculative in nature."

Rasmus cites 2006 statistics that reveal the relative
value of global financial assets, as well as the
infinite forms those assets assume: he covers cash,
stocks, bonds, options, certificates of deposit,
commercial paper, money funds, foreign currency,
precious metals, commodity futures, derivatives,
redeemable insurance contracts, accounting receivables,
and more.

This endless, toxic brew of financial cocktails
outstripped the global economy's total production of
commodities by a factor of three. In the United States,
it was worse: the enormously lucrative financial sector
accounted for four times the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), the measure of all the goods and paid services
produced in this country.

Numerous investment schemes were concocted to attract
this excess glut of global capital, which saw more
profit in paper transactions than in production of real
goods and services. As demand for speculative ventures
multiplied, so did the stock market.

The Dow Jones jumped an incredible 8,000 points from
1994-2000, the largest leap in its history. All seemed
to be going well - too well, as it turned out. Little
of verifiable physical value was being produced, but
the global economy was awash in trillions of dollars,
which bulged in the pockets of the wealthiest among us
as they swam toward the next big speculative venture.

Cracks began to appear during the Asian currency crisis
and the dotcom bust, creating what billionaire
financier George Soros described as a "longer-term
super bubble." Nonetheless, thinking it held all the
cards, the Federal Reserve Bank threw more chips into
the pot by dramatically lowering interest rates. It
wasn't the first or the last time the Fed made sure the
money faucet flowed anytime Wall Street got a little
thirsty.

With more money on the table, in the first years of
this decade banks actually aggressively pursued
homebuyers just to keep the casino doors open. More
homebuyers meant higher home prices, which in turn
meant exponentially greater numbers of eager purchasers
of mortgage-bundled investments. New blood appeared in
the water, and speculators' feeding frenzy continued.

As long as profits continued to flow, the warning
tremors were ignored. Few recognized or wanted to admit
that the economy was built on a shallow landfill,
unprepared for a hit from the next "Big One."

The housing market finally collapsed when consumers
could no longer afford the skyrocketing home prices in
the scene that had topped speculators' menus in the
last few years. The resulting sag in home purchases in
2006 was compounded by the growing number of mortgage
defaults, thus triggering an enormous free fall of the
fragile financial structures that depended so heavily
on the fantasy that home prices would steadily and
endlessly increase.

How Did This Happen?

New financial packages were developed in the U.S.
housing sector that profited enormously as each
mortgage on the original physical asset - in this case,
a home - was bundled together with assorted other stock
portfolios, hedge funds, and securities that were
passed along a chain of sellers and buyers. Each
investor profited from every subsequent exchange, even
as the paper trail strayed farther and farther from the
initial real, material asset the home represented.

Speculators on home mortgages not only benefited from
the surge in housing prices - they created it. In fact,
higher home prices were essential to maintaining the
profitable sale and resale of these bundled mortgage
investments as new investors climbed on board.

True to the nature of Wall Street thrillseekers, none
of them believed the ride would end.

In fact, to keep the wheel of fortune turning, lenders
began desperately and aggressively offering no-interest
home loans to credit-deficient working people, who
subsequently defaulted when the Federal Reserve Bank
began raising their credit line from a floor of one
percent to over six percent after 2003.

Hundreds of thousands of defaulting families, whom Wall
Street apologists frequently blamed for the deep
recession, are really the victims and pawns of these
shady pyramid schemes.

The whole game depended on housing prices rising, and
they did, for a while, as speculative demand for
housing derivatives increased. But, at some point, the
material asset on which any investment derivative is
based - for example, a home - must correspond to a real
set of values.

Rasmus makes the point that supply and demand
restraints do not apply equally to speculative
ventures; in fact, demand is the driving force. As
demand grew for the sale and repeated re-sales of home
mortgages to investment firms, the price of each
subsequent transaction escalated. The profits and fees
associated with each transaction drove home prices even
higher.

As Rasmus explains, the price of the real, physical
entity of a home - unlike its various speculative paper
derivative counterparts - is affected by market supply
and demand. So when home prices outdistanced the means
of cash-strapped, debt-ridden consumers, an epidemic of
defaults ensued, adding to the housing glut and leading
to dramatic declines in home prices.

The boom finally went bust, but Buffet and the other
billionaires are still smiling. They either profited
enormously in the boom years, or were bailed out by the
Bush and Obama administrations that covered several
trillion dollars in losses by the 19 largest banks and
investment firms in the United States.

But the government didn't extend a single dollar to
homeowners. In effect, nothing has been done to solve
the underlying problem, which is that working families
have become chronic underconsumers; the problem is
exacerbated by the unavailability of credit, the last
potential lifeline to compensate for lower wages and
higher health care costs.

Rasmus's predictions do not, therefore, exclude the
possibility of the economy descending even further. The
current situation is nothing more than a holding
pattern, a stalemate that merely postpones a descent
into depression. The fragile banking system was beefed
up, but little has been done to rebuild the
deteriorating conditions worker-consumers face in this
country. No recovery is possible without addressing
their struggle.

Depression or Recovery?

Not surprisingly, Rasmus, a former labor organizer,
frames the solutions he recommends in his final chapter
around a political theme. He expresses more confidence
in the change-making potential of a rejuvenated union
movement that champions working class economic and
social reforms than he does in Washington politicians
who have already amply demonstrated their class bias.

The book contains descriptions of several other epic
recessions in our past, such as the slumps of 1907-1914
and 1929-1931, when little or no government spending on
jobs led to what the author terms severe "consumption
fragility," setting the stage for long-term stagnation
on the road towards a full-blown depression.

These economic catastrophes were only averted by the
massive government spending leading up to World War I
and World War II.

For Rasmus, turning the economy around today means
learning from these experiences by closing the widening
wealth gap and investing the tax revenues generated by
taxing the very wealthy directly into productive
sectors of the economy.

It starts with substantial reforms of taxes on capital
income. For example, California and New York's huge
state deficits could be wiped out today by applying a
one percent tax on the total aggregate wealth of the
wealthiest one percent of their residents. Many
European countries do just that.

A just tax program, Rasmus maintains, would eliminate
national, state, and municipal deficits; it would also
lead to higher employment and more living- wage jobs.
It would shift the sidetracked political discussion in
this country away from using existing deficits - mostly
induced by war spending and bank bailouts - as an
excuse to halt government spending on jobs and social
programs.

"These are key political points," Rasmus told me, "that
must be raised and discussed more. Otherwise, folks
will think the only alternative is to cut the deficit,
which means immensely more pain for the working class,
and, inevitably, a descent into depression."

His other solutions include nationalization of key
banking transactions to finance home loans at no
interest - the same unbeatable rate provided to bailed-
out banks and investment firms.

The fraudulent nature of the last decade's economic
boom has already been exposed. Epic Recession explains
how it happened and how previous recessions and
depressions arose and abated. The book also addresses
why dramatic structural changes of the economy must go
well beyond reinstituting banking regulations, and
outlines how a fairer tax system could generate
trillions of dollars for social programs and jobs to
upright a thoroughly imbalanced economy tilted toward
the super-rich.

Rasmus provides readers with three conveniently
distinct sections that can be read independently,
prefaced by an introduction that gives an excellent
overview of them all. He begins with a discussion of
broad economic theory, followed by a description of
U.S. economic history, and finishes with an analysis of
the causes and solutions to the current epic recession.

Thus, the author is the exception to George Bernard
Shaw's observation that, "If all economists were laid
end to end, they would not reach a conclusion." On the
contrary, Rasmus has plenty of opinions, all fact-
based, and plenty of conclusions, all well documented.

He does, however, face an obstacle wittily noted by
another famous authority, the late liberal American
economist John Kenneth Galbraith, who once wrote that,
"Economics is a subject . . . resonant with boredom. On
few topics is an American audience so practiced in
turning off its ears and minds. And none can say the
response is ill advised."

Despite Galbraith's sidelong caveat, students, workers,
social activists, and those who simply want to examine
more closely the collapsing world economy that is
dramatically affecting us all, would be well advised to
plunge ahead. To be sure, this is not a happy-face book
to be read leisurely with your iPod blasting away. This
is a scholarly work on a serious subject that deserves
to be studied thoughtfully, but that doesn't mean it is
too difficult to understand.

On the contrary, the book shatters the mystique of
economics. Human decisions, not Adam Smith's legendary
"invisible hand," have brought us to the brink of this
disaster. If you want to be better equipped to
understand the world around us, to analyze the current
turmoil engulfing us, and to anticipate what may lie
ahead for us, Epic Recession belongs on your bookshelf.
__________

Carl Finamore is a delegate to the San Francisco Labor
Council, AFL-CIO and former President (ret.), Air
Transport Employees, Local Lodge 1781, IAMAW. He can be
reached at [log in to unmask]

This work by Truthout is licensed under a Creative
Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 United States
License.

___________________________________________

Portside aims to provide material of interest to people
on the left that will help them to interpret the world
and to change it.

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