Recall FAQ: Everything you need to know about Tuesday's 
elections 

By JOHN NICHOLS | Cap Times associate editor
August 9, 2011
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http://www.readersupportednews.org/off-site-opinion-section/72-72/6961-judgement-day-in-wisconsin

The Wisconsin recall elections that will take place Tuesday
provide one of the most remarkable accountability moments in
modern American history. After Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker
and his Republican allies used their control of the state's
executive and legislative branches of government to attack
labor rights, local democracy, public education and basic
services, mass demonstrations erupted across the state -
culminating in an early March protest outside the state
Capitol that drew 150,000 people to one of the largest pro-
labor demonstrations in American history.

Despite the protests, despite polls that showed broad
opposition to the governor's agenda, his legislative allies
continued to advance their wrecking-crew agenda.

So the movement that had developed dusted off an old
accountability tool developed during the era of populist and
progressive reform in the late 19th and early 20th centuries:
the recall. Wisconsin is one of 19 American states that allow
citizens to collect signatures on petitions and force sitting
officials to face a special election.

In Wisconsin, six of the Republican state senators who voted
with Walker face recall elections Tuesday. While the labor
and community forces that organized the recall drives had
little trouble collecting the tens of thousands of signatures
needed to force the election, they faced unprecedented
obstacles in getting to this point.

Terrified by the threat to his authority, Walker and his
allies tried to thwart the recall drives with procedural,
legal and electoral challenges - going so far as to run
"fake" Democratic challengers, all of whom lost to real
Democrats in July 12 primaries. Walker allies also launched
recall drives against a half-dozen Democratic senators, on
the theory that defeating Democrats might offset losses by
Republicans. (Only three of the Republican petition drives
attracted sufficient support to force recalls of Democrats;
one of the targeted Democrats has already been re-elected,
while two others face tests Aug. 16.)

With the approach of Tuesday's election, Walker's allies in
national movements to privatize public schools, undermine
unions and create a pay-to-play politics that favors
corporate interests over those of citizens and communities
have pumped millions of dollars into local elections with an
eye toward defeating the Democratic challenges.

So what is the state of play?

Here is an FAQ that answers key questions:

Q: WHAT IS THE POINT OF THE RECALLS?

A: Democrats have no real ability to check and balance Walker
at this point. If Democrats win a total of three seats in the
state Senate, they will shift control of the chamber and
loosen the governor's iron grip on state government - a grip
that extends to the judicial branch, where Walker's allies
have used their narrow control of the state's seven-member
Supreme Court to support legally dubious gubernatorial and
legislative moves.

The best way to understand the numbers is this: Nine recall
elections (six targeting Republicans, three targeting
Democrats) are being held this summer. If Democrats win a
combination of those elections, they get control of the
Senate. One Democrat (Dave Hansen of Green Bay) won his July
12 election outright. At least three Democrats must win
Tuesday to shift Senate control. And the two Democratic
incumbents facing recall votes on Aug. 16 must win.

Q: IS THAT POSSIBLE?

A: Yes. Two Democratic challengers are generally seen as
leading in the polls. State Rep. Jennifer Shilling, D-La
Crosse, is considered to be well ahead in her challenge to
Republican Sen. Dan Kapanke in western Wisconsin's 32nd
District. Former Oshkosh Vice Mayor Jess King has held a
narrower but steady lead over Republican Sen. Randy Hopper,
who has been dogged by personal scandals, in eastern
Wisconsin's 18th District.

That's two.

In two more districts, Democratic challengers have run even
in most polls while at some points opening narrow leads.
State Rep. Sandy Pasch, D-Whitefish Bay, has mounted a
remarkable grass-roots campaign against Republican Sen.
Alberta Darling in suburban Milwaukee's 8th District, while
state Rep. Fred Clark, D-Baraboo, is mounting a similarly
aggressive challenge in the small cities and rural
communities of central Wisconsin's 14th District.

If Pasch or Clark wins, the Democrats will get to three and,
if they both win, which is possible, that's relatively
comfortable control of the Senate.

In two other races, Democrats are competitive - trailing
narrowly in most polls but easily within the margin of error.
Former Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum, a former
Republican, has been seen in recent weeks as closing rapidly
on Republican Sen. Rob Cowles in the Green Bay area's 2nd
District, while Shelly Moore, a teacher who has inspired
passionate support in northwest Wisconsin's 10th District,
has shocked political veterans by making a real race of her
challenge to Republican Sen. Sheila Harsdorf.

If either Nusbaum or Moore wins, the Democrats will have
control of the Senate, no matter what happens in the Aug. 16
recall elections of the two Democratic senators.

Q: IS IT POSSIBLE DEMOCRATS COULD TAKE CONTROL OF THE STATE
SENATE THIS TUESDAY AND LOSE IT THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY?

A: Yes.

The Senate is currently split 19-14, with Republicans in the
majority. If three or more Democrats win this Tuesday,
control of the Senate will shift from the Republicans to the
Democrats.

For instance, three wins this Tuesday would give Democrats a
17-16 majority.

Four wins this Tuesday would give Democrats an 18-15
majority.

In either of those cases, it is possible that the Democrats
could lose the Senate on Aug. 16, as voters could defeat one
or both the Democrats who are facing recalls.

Q: IS IT LIKELY EITHER OF THE DEMOCRATS WHO FACE RECALL VOTES
WILL LOSE?

A: One of the Democrats, Sen. Rob Wirch of Kenosha, looks to
be in a very strong position. Kenosha, the main community in
historically Democratic District 22, has always been a strong
union town. Rallies for Wirch have been huge and
enthusiastic. The Republican candidate, Jonathan Steitz, is a
corporate lawyer from Chicago who was nominated in a very
low-turnout GOP primary. He is not a likely winner against
Wirch, who is well-known and personally popular.

In northern Wisconsin's 12th District, the race between
Democratic Sen. Jim Holperin and Republican challenger Kim
Simac, a tea party favorite who has been talked up by Glenn
Beck, is likely to be closer. But Holperin, who survived a
recall two decades ago, has worked the district hard and
seems to be in a reasonably strong position.

If Republicans are down one seat after Tuesday's voting, they
will focus hard on Holperin and the battle for rural northern
Wisconsin's 12th District will shape up as the final slugfest
of the recall season.

Q: WHAT IF DEMOCRATS ONLY WIN TWO SEATS TUESDAY? DOES THAT
MEAN WALKER MAINTAINS ABSOLUTE POWER?

A: Not necessarily. If Democrats pick up two Republican seats
Tuesday and hold the two Democratic seats that are up for
election Aug. 16, the split in the state Senate will be 17-16
in favor of the Republicans. But one Republican senator, Dale
Schultz, a western Wisconsin moderate, broke with his party
on the labor issues and has in recent weeks been distancing
himself from the governor. Schultz has been touring the state
with a moderate Democratic senator, Tim Cullen of Janesville,
and the two made a big deal about looking for places where
they can work together on issues. Additionally, Schultz has
spoken out publicly in recent days about how he felt that the
governor and Republican legislative leaders thwarted his
efforts to find a compromise with the unions during the
dispute over the budget repair bill.

If Democrats finish the recall process with two more seats,
they will not have clear control of the Senate, but they will
put Dale Schultz in an exceptionally powerful position where
- should he side with the Democrats, as he did on the
collective bargaining legislation - the moderate Republican
could tip the balance away from the governor.

Q: SO, WHAT'S A VICTORY?

A: Remember that any seat that flips from Republican to
Democrat is a significant win, since all of the targeted
Republican senators won election in the 2008 presidential
election - surviving the Obama landslide. The Republicans are
incumbents with long track records; they generally represent
districts that were drawn to elect Republicans. So displacing
any of them is a big deal.

However, the clear goal of the recall effort has been to
shift control of the Senate. Winning three or more seats will
do that; winning two seats only creates the possibility if
Schultz chooses to try and find the middle ground - probably
in conjunction with Cullen.

Q: IF THE DEMOCRATS DO TAKE CONTROL OF THE STATE SENATE, WHAT
DOES THAT MEAN FROM A POLICY STANDPOINT?

A: Most of the contentious issues of the past six months -
the stripping of collective bargaining rights, the radical
redistricting of the state, the passage of a draconian voter
ID law - have inspired court challenges. Any of these issues
could be sent back to the Legislature by the courts. If so, a
Democratic Senate (or a Republican Senate with Schultz in a
position to empower the Democrats) could force Walker and his
Republican allies to negotiate - and ultimately to moderate
extreme positions. And if new budget issues arise, as is
possible, the Democrats would be positioned to demand better
funding of public education, local services and Medicare-
based health programs.

Q: AND HOW MIGHT THINGS CHANGE POLITICALLY?

A: If Democrats take control of the Senate, the victory will
have long-range political impacts. Efforts to recall Walker,
which can begin in November, will be certain to proceed.
Additionally, labor and community groups in other states -
such as Ohio and Michigan - will be emboldened as they pursue
referendum and recall strategies to push back against right-
wing hegemony. And it is not unreasonable to suggest that
President Obama and national Democrats will take note of the
popular appeal of a pushback against Republican extremism,
especially in the battleground states of the upper Midwest
and Great Lakes regions.

[John Nichols is the associate editor of The Capital Times.
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