How US Rules On Former Felons Voting Can Swing 
Presidential Elections
Unlike most countries, some US states ban even 
ex-felons from voting. Given their numbers, that 
can easily change the result
Harry J Enten
The Guardian
July 3 2012
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/03/us-rules-former-felons-voting-swing-elections

You've probably seen an article trying to pinpoint the
portion of the electorate that will make the difference
in the 2012 election. Whether it be soccer moms,
Latinos, African-Americans, Jewish Americans, 
college-educated voters, working-class whites, Asians, 
most of this analysis is interesting, if a little
overboard.

Yet, there is one group of Americans who loom large in
number and receive little attention in presidential
elections: felons. In all states but Maine and Vermont,
currently incarcerated felons are not allowed to vote.
In an additional 13 states, plus the District of
Columbia, felons who have completed their term of
imprisonment can vote. Another five states allow voting
after parole has been completed, and another 18 allow
voting to resume after both parole and probation have
been carried out. Ex-felons (that is, former offenders
who are out of prison and who have served parole and
probation) in 12 states lose the right to vote
permanently despite paying their "debt to society".

A 2002 study estimated that about 4.7 million American
felons in total were disenfranchised for the 2000
election, while a 2004 estimate pegged the number at
about 5.3 million American felons for the 2004 election.
These numbers are merely estimates from past years, but
they give us an idea that about 2-3% of US citizens are
barred from voting because they are (or have been)
felons.

The restriction on felon franchisment is not too unusual
in comparison to the rest of the world. While many
countries such as Canada, Denmark, and Israel allow
almost all convicted offenders to vote, others such as
Brazil, India, and the United Kingdom completely bar
prisoners from voting.

What is different about the US bans is that, from state
to state, they may continue to be in effect after a
person leaves prison. Only six countries, including
Chile, Finland and Germany, in a 45-country study belong
to this group. In the cases of Finland and Germany,
voting rights are usually restored quickly or a ban
imposed only for a period of time.

Because of America's unique rules, some 3.5-4 million
citizens as of 2000 and 2004 respectively are out of
prison, but not allowed to vote. A smaller, but still
significant, 1.7-2.1 million US citizens who could be
officially deemed "ex-felons" were legally denied the
right to vote in 2000 and 2004 respectively.

These voting laws overwhelmingly disenfranchise African
Americans, who make up 40% of the disenfranchised
felon/ex-felon population. (Blacks make up only about
13% of the general population.)

Presidential elections, however, are not determined
nationally, but on a state-by-state basis. I've pulled
the felon voting laws from the 11 states that I believe
will determine the outcome of the election. I've
assigned each felon a 30% chance of voting - if given
the opportunity per Jeff Manza and Christopher Uggen's
2004 study. Using this data and the overall turnout in
each state from 2004, I determined what percentage of
felons would have made up of the electorate had they
been allowed to vote.

Not surprisingly, states such as Colorado, Michigan,
Ohio, and Pennsylvania with the loosest regulation of
felon or ex-felon voting rights are the states where
felons would have the weakest potential impact on the
voting pool. Disenfranchised felons, however, would make
up a significant percentage of the electorate, from 1.5%
to 4%, in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, and Virginia - if given
the right to vote (in all these states, even ex-felons
have obligations to fulfill before being allowed to
vote).

Concentrating solely on disenfranchised ex-felons, we
see that they would have comprised 2.6% in Virginia and
3.4% in Florida (of the respective voting electorates).

How would these felons change the election outcome?
Partly because about 40% of disenfranchised felons are
African-American, we can extrapolate that a fairly
steady 70-80% of felon voters would have cast their
ballots for the Democratic presidential candidate
between 1972 and 2000. I estimate that Al Gore would
have increased his margin over George W Bush by at least
500,000 votes in the 2000 election. That may not seem
like a lot, but he only won the popular vote by 500,000
- so this would have doubled his margin.

Yet, it's in the swing states where felon voting would
likely have made the biggest difference. Let's assume
nationally that 70-80% of the vote would go to the
Democratic candidate. If ex-felons and felons were
allowed to vote in Iowa, Virginia, or Florida, they
would probably have changed the margin by at least a
percentage point in each state and potentially upward of
2.4 percentage points in Florida.

Even if we hone it down to "ex-felons" only, they would
have been numerous enough to change the margin by up to
a percentage point in Iowa, 1.5 points in Virginia, and
2 points in the crucial swing state of Florida.

These are huge changes in a close election: 2 percentage
points distributed to the correct swing state would have
reversed the presidential result in the 1960, 1976,
2000, and perhaps the 2004 election. These changes are
certainly much larger than the expected Democratic gain,
for instance, if Latinos were actually to vote in
proportion to their overall percentage of the eligible
population.

Of course, whether or not felons should be allowed to
vote is another question - and one that even divides
members of the same party. My guess is that if you are a
Democrat, your answer would almost certainly be yes. If
you're a Republican, then the numbers might make you
more inclined to answer in the negative.

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